IT has been clear since the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum that the SNP would neither abide by its outcome nor respect its own stated position that it was a once in a generation event.
We therefore now seem to be heading for a rerun. As we do so, we must learn the lessons of earlier referendums.
Echoing Alex Salmond’s “the dream will never die” after a 45-55 result, his Brexit counterpart Nigel Farage said on the night of the vote: “If it is 48-52 Remain, this would be unfinished business by a long way.” Subsequent events show that a narrow victory for either side just produces deeper divisions. If 55 per cent is too low for the nationalists, the first lesson we learn is that we will need a two-thirds Yes vote for independence to succeed with the full acceptance of the population – Yes and No.
The second lesson is that whatever is promised by politicians in any referendum campaign is not what will be delivered in any final deal. In the case of the 2014 indyref, for example, the Yes campaign promised us a currency union with rUK and automatic EU membership. Neither of these was deliverable unilaterally, or probably at all. The final terms of leaving the UK would have been as different to those of the White Paper as the pledges of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson were to the final Brexit terms.
The same will apply in indyref2 – for example, the issues of currency, share of debt, EU membership, borders and customs arrangements will not be in the gift of the Scottish Government. There is therefore a cast-iron case to offer voters a confirmatory vote when the outcome of new independence negotiations are concluded. My recollection is that Nicola Sturgeon campaigned vigorously for such an arrangement regarding Brexit. She should be promising the same – and safeguards against a catastrophic victory for the minority – right now.
What is she scared of?
Peter A Russell, Glasgow.